Restoring reciprocity through tariffs
Or stop investing in the US?
The major players might strike a deal: Putin gets Ukraine, Trump acquires Greenland and Gaza, China takes Taiwan, and Netanyahu annexes the West Bank. This aligns with Trump's straightforward worldview: do ut des (I give so that you may give). It's a form of reciprocity, except that the major players aren't the only members of the group. Breaking rules can yield advantages, and it's easier for the big players: more wealth, more territory, a larger progeny, and the wider spread of one's own DNA—the ultimate driver of any organism. Unless other group members put a stop to it.
The sibling of reciprocity is punishment. By punishing, the undue advantage is nullified. Donald Trump believes he understands this principle. He imposes additional tariffs on countries that gain more from cooperation than he does. If I buy $5 billion worth of goods from you, you should buy $5 billion from me. Quid pro quo! Logical, right? So why do countries subjected to tariffs become so upset that they're even willing to retaliate, harming themselves in the process? On first sight it seems quite irrational.
If individuals who flout group rules can benefit from it, chaos ensues, eventually leading to the end of group cooperation. The end of cooperation poses a threat to the survival and reproduction of every individual in the group. Therefore, free riders, entities that hitch a free ride on the efforts of others, must be punished. Reciprocity is a natural law, and thus the sharing of food and other vital resources is deeply ingrained in humans. By eating together, we show our goodwill. Political negotiators are well aware of this. A meal almost always plays a part in difficult negotiations. It brings strangers closer together. Sharing food enhances the giver's reputation. The United States understood this well. Sixty years ago, USAID was established to provide assistance worldwide—with food, victim aid, medical programs, etc. This generated goodwill. Countries were eager to cooperate with the United States. Donald Trump is now dismantling USAID. Not fair; the U.S. gets nothing in return, he says.
Trump clearly didn't have behavioral biology in his curriculum. He doesn't have a dog either. He said he just doesn’t have the time to look after a pet. Well, he should make time and buy one. Dog owners know all too well that you can get a dog to do what you want by rewarding it with food. If I say 'come' and give the dog a treat when it comes, it will listen better in the future. I buy food for the animal and give it away to make the dog obedient. I can do this because I have more resources than the dog. But the dog gives nothing back, Trump might say; you have to put in more than you get out (except for shit). So why do so many people have a dog? A dog only costs money! Trump forgets that for that bit of food, you receive loyalty (which Trump likes very much), support, companionship, friendship, and, if necessary, even protection in return. Not goods, but goodwill and friendship. Xi Jinping will be pleased with the dismantling of USAID. China has been investing in goodwill with countries in Asia and Africa for years. Goodwill eventually leads to trade, influence, and cooperation. And cooperation is good for one's own prosperity and, ultimately, the survival of one's own DNA.
Trump prefers not to provide aid to Ukraine. Too costly, and you get nothing in return. Ukraine now has to repay military aid with rare raw materials. Some countries in Europe think the same way. You spend billions on a country that can't seem to win against Russia and is now an economic mess. Better to stop and give the country to Russia. Then Putin will be satisfied too. But Putin is precisely the boy in the class who doesn't follow the rules. He is the thief who constantly takes things from others because those items once belonged to his grandparents. Putin is the free rider who must be punished because if you don't, he will keep stealing. You can't cooperate with someone like that. Ukraine, on the other hand, is like the dog that gets treats. If you make it strong enough, it will defend you with its life. The Ukrainians are giving their lives to punish Putin on our behalf. Ukraine can rightly say that the terms are unfair. A few weapons in exchange for human lives is not a good deal! The United States and especially Europe should give much more in return. Trump even became friends with the classroom bully. Everywhere, people were saying this undermines global stability. True, but how do you punish the two biggest bullies in the class?
The inclination to punish free riders has developed a genetic basis over hundreds of thousands of years of evolution. Researchers Fehr and Gächter demonstrated that in situations lacking cooperation, it is more prudent not to invest, as there is no benefit to be gained; investing group members in such scenarios became progressively poorer. However, when every group member invested during the experiment, each received a return four times their investment. Members who were punished had to relinquish more than they had gained by violating the rules, and even the punisher incurred a cost. Nevertheless, various participants chose to punish the free rider. Those who invested the least in the group were punished most frequently (75%), while those who invested the most were also the most active in administering punishment. The outcome was that cooperation in groups where punishment was permitted improved significantly, with the majority of members eventually investing in the group. In a control group where punishment was not allowed, nearly no one continued to invest in the project.
This behavior did not stem from rational calculation, as evidenced by the fact that investors later reported experiencing strong negative emotions in response to the free riders' actions; their anger intensified with their own level of contribution. The profiteers, in turn, anticipated this anger and felt fear when committing their acts. Once free riders realized they would be punished, their fear was confirmed, raising the threshold for engaging in such behavior. Punishment within a group thus has an immediate effect on cooperation, impacting not only the free rider but also other members. This is not due to conscious probability assessment but rather the amplification of perceived fear. One could argue that the underlying emotion serves as an evolutionary form of probability calculation; when an action threatens the survival of an individual or their family, emotion arises.
Canadians were outraged by the tariffs imposed by President Trump. They promptly boycotted American products, and many vowed not to vacation in the U.S., viewing the tariffs as a form of corruption where the leader demands a share of the proceeds without contributing. The Canadian government also announced its own tariffs in response. This tit-for-tat reaction is a fundamental biological principle. According to Canada, it was Trump who violated the rules, and rightly so, as Canadians were acting entirely in accordance with agreements Trump himself had made with them. Trump momentarily forgot that the U.S. consumes more than it produces, living beyond its means. The U.S. has too little to trade, resulting in trade deficits with nearly all countries. The necessary funds are borrowed, and the interest is paid with borrowed money. Why, then, do countries continue to supply such a glutton who contributes too little to production? The answer is simple: by continuing to "feed" the US, it offers loyalty, friendship, and protection in return. But when he becomes unreliable, he must be punished, and in the extreme case, abandoned in favor of a new partner. Unfortunately Xi Jinping is eager to take his place.
This week pension fund ABP in the Netherlands ended its investments in Tesla, Meta and Alphabet. Probably that’s the best answer to Trump: Stop investing in the US! Invest in countries that can be trusted, like most countries in Europe. For a short while it will be painfull, but in the long term cooperation will flourish.
It is hoped that Donald Trump soon realizes that every person, every country, plays both the role of master and dog, depending on the situation. In human cooperation, punishing and being punished are unavoidable.
In a world awash with opinions, I aim to seek for the fundamentals of existence and find common ground. These posts do not claim definitive truths, but rather explore ideas about the biological foundations of thought and behavior. All who wish to engage in this journey are welcome—without the expectation of absolute answers.